Cheltenham Festival 2021 Ante-Post Tips - Champion Hurdle
- Harry Reynolds
- Feb 1, 2021
- 10 min read
As the Champion Hurdle approached last year, plenty of questions surrounded Epatante and whether she was a genuine top-quality horse.
She had previously disappointed on her only start at Cheltenham, finishing ninth in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle in 2019, having gone off the 15/8 favourite.
The Nicky Henderson-trained mare bounced right back to form after that though, winning the Gerry Feilden at Newbury and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in hugely impressive fashion.
Any questions about her ability were then emphatically refuted with a stunning performance to win the Champion Hurdle by an easy three lengths, and she re-appeared this season with another facile success in the Fighting Fifth hurdle at Newcastle, her third Grade 1 victory.
However, she once again comes into this race with something to prove, even as the ante-post favourite.
Her winning streak was unexpectedly halted by Silver Streak as she looked to defend her Christmas Hurdle title on Boxing Day, a race in which she started the 1/5 favourite.
Something was evidently not right with Epatante from the outset that day - leaving the parade ring she was in some distress, throwing her head around and simply would not settle under jockey Aidan Coleman. That continued as the race got underway, wasting energy that she would need at the end of the contest.
Meanwhile, Silver Streak had poached an easy lead in a change of tactics, and he wouldn't be for catching. The grey horse, who had come up short in previous Grade 1 attempts, finally got himself in the winner's enclosure at the top level and no one could begrudge him that, even if he profited from a massively below-par Epatante. It was an excellent ride from Adam Wedge, who slowed the pace down when in front, but really went through the gears as they turned for home, and no other horse could go with him, with his typical strong-finishing style not at all inconvenienced by the tactical alteration.
Ironically, Epatante repeated the feat that two-time Champion Hurdler and stablemate Buveur D'Air managed when he was turned over in the same race at short odds in 2018, knocking the third-last hurdle flat to the ground. She just about stayed on all-fours, but that was the death knell, sapping any energy she had remaining after being way too keen in the early stages.
While it was a great achievement for Silver Streak, Wedge and trainer Evan Williams, you would have to question whether he really is a Grade 1 horse. As we've seen over fences with another grey, Politologue, this horse has been beaten time and time again at the height of the sport. The change of tactics to make the running rather than be held up certainly eked out some improvement, but you would be hard pressed to find anyone who thought he was more talented than Epatante.
He has some previous in the Champion Hurdle of course, finishing third in the 2019 edition when going off a massive 80/1 outsider. That race was a total mess though, with the big three in the market Buveur D'Air, Apple's Jade and Laurina all flopping or falling, and a year ago, he was sixth and 12 lengths behind Epatante. The eight-year-old has also never won on ground worse than good to soft, which given the history for very soft ground at the start of the Festival in the last couple of years would have to be a concern.
Fortunately, the issue with Epatante was found to be a problem with her back which was making her uncomfortable. Nicky Henderson revealed last week that they've been working on it at home, and that all should be well when the white flag is raised for the Champion Hurdle in March.
Currently, she is a best-priced 9/4 to retain her crown, while Silver Streak is generally a 10/1 shot, although 11/1 is available. At those odds, Epatante has to be the bet. She has shown she is a genuine Grade 1 performer, and even though you're taking it on trust that they've managed to fix her back problem, you're getting a more than fair price about it.
Another challenge that Silver Streak will face in the Champion Hurdle is a battle for the lead. You would assume that connections will stick to the same tactics that served him so well at Kempton, but there are other rivals in here who won't give him an easy time out in front.
Aspire Tower and Goshen are both confirmed front-runners, and I would be amazed if Silver Streak was able to keep up with them in the early stages. We might find that the Christmas Hurdle was just his day in the sun, unable to recapture that form in bigger and more deep fields.
Certainly, Henry De Bromhead's Aspire Tower is more interesting in my view. He finished second in the Triumph Hurdle last year behind Burning Victory, and was a Grade 2 winner as a juvenile in Ireland - he might've added a Grade 1 but for a fall at the final hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. In two runs this season he has finished first in the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle, beating the Supreme Novices' Hurdle second Abacadabras, following up with a fair effort when runner-up in the Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle behind Sharjah at Christmas having made a few jumping errors.
If those mistakes can be ironed out, and you feel they can be, he is a massive player in this race.
While Aspire Tower has progressed from a nice juvenile campaign, the aforementioned Goshen has done anything but. He would've been one of the most impressive winners of the Triumph in history, but for a heart-breaking fall at the final hurdle in a completely freak accident, with his fore and hind hooves getting caught together, which ultimately ejected Jamie Moore from the saddle.
He reappeared in the summer with two abject runs on the flat, finishing last of six at Haydock over 14 furlongs initially, but was beaten into the third when dropped back to 12 furlongs at Goodwood on his next run. Both of those efforts were off a mark of 88, and with the rule of thumb that you add 45 pounds to the flat rating to gauge the ability over obstacles, that means he was struggling to reach a mark of 133. For context, his actual National Hunt rating was 156, leaving him almost two stone to find.
Alarm bells were ringing for me after those summer runs, but when he blew out in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December it was clear something was wrong. He finished last of 10 that day, and it was then discovered that he had a fibrilating heart, similar to the issues that Denman and Sprinter Sacre overcame. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could rediscover his juvenile form, but he's chucked in three awful efforts and he certainly wouldn't be getting any of my money. He does hold an entry for the Contenders' Hurdle at Sandown this Saturday, so it will be interesting to see how he gets on there.
Across the Irish Sea, the Matheson Hurdle is the latest piece of form we have to go off, while also considering the Morgiana Hurdle from November. The latter was won by Abacadabras, who was given a fantastic ride to see off Saint Roi's late charge, in turn giving a nod to Aspire Tower's previous effort. However, he was stuffed by Sharjah in the Matheson, although it was well documented that Gordon Elliott's horses weren't firing over Christmas, so you could perhaps forgive that run. It would certainly explain how he was beaten 24 lengths back into fifth, and given what we've seen of him both as a novice and in open company, that wouldn't befit his ability.
Abacadabras was second to superstars Shishkin and Envoi Allen as a novice hurdler, and with both of them now settling the world alight over fences, it does give a nod to just how good he might be. He was within two lengths of Envoi Allen, and beaten just a nose by Shishkin at Cheltenham, and those are quite comfortably the best pieces of form of any contender in this race. This horse has serious talent, and with the Elliott yard now in much better nick, I think he's got a massive chance in the Champion Hurdle if he stays well. With 14/1 on offer with some firms, he's a cracking each-way bet.
For Sharjah, winning the Matheson was more of the same - it completed a hat-trick of wins in the race for him. He ran a screamer to finish second to Epatante in the Champion Hurdle last season, and was so impressive last time out. Willie Mullins' horse cruised up to Aspire Tower and Saint Roi approaching the last flight and swept by the pair of them, significantly enhancing his claims of going one better at the Festival in 2021.
It's always been thought that Sharjah needs good ground to be seen to best effect. However, he's now put up two massive efforts on soft ground, which really makes that old belief somewhat defunct. This horse has often been overlooked but he has been brilliant for connections, and is definitely their best hope of winning the race for the first time since Annie Power strode up the Cheltenham hill in 2016, currently second-favourite for the race at a general 7/1.
Having won the County Hurdle at the Festival last season, it was actually Saint Roi who looked the Mullins team's best hope for this race at the start of the season. Unlike Abacadabras who had excuses for his performance at Leopardstown last time, Saint Roi had none. He travelled up looking like the winner, and found absolutely nothing for pressure under Mark Walsh, eventually being passed by Petit Mouchoir to finish in fourth place. In the Morgiana he pulled so fiercely he basically lost all his chance, which wasn't helped by poor jumping, and for me it would take a miracle for him to come back to form and win this. That being said, if anyone can manage that it is Willie Mullins.
They also have Saldier entered, the winner of the 2019 Morgiana, who has been notoriously difficult to keep fit and well. He wasn't seen for over 13 months after that effort, and he was sixth when making his comeback in the Matheson, eight lengths behind Abacadabras. Although he's previously shown some ability, his issues have probably caught up with him. Saldier has raced only three times since April 2018, and I just cannot see how he concedes all of those problems and probable fitness to those at the top of the market.
We should see all of these horses in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival on Saturday, where we can also throw in last year's Mares' Hurdle winner Honeysuckle. She's unbeaten in 10 career starts, including a point-to-point, and won the two-mile contest at Leopardstown a year ago, beating Darver Star by half a length. That form was franked when he went on to finish third in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.
The bookies have an almighty price differential on her chances for Cheltenham this year, due to some firms offering non-runner no bet at this stage while others haven't, and she of course holds an entry in the Mares' Hurdle too. She's as big as 16/1 with William Hill, and as short as 6/1 in other places. For my money, I can't see her running in this race. I'm not sure she's got the turn of pace to live with an Epatante or Sharjah at the finish, and the most winnable race is undoubtedly the Mares' Hurdle, run over an extra half mile. The same applies to Concertista, who also has an entry for the Champion Hurdle, but I would be shocked if she ran.
It would be an incredible comeback if Buveur D'Air was to regain his crown, having won the race in 2017 and 2018. He suffered a freak injury in the Fighting Fifth last season, and was off the track for over 400 days before returning at Haydock in The New One Hurdle just over a week ago. After a slow start, he actually jumped really well that day, and looked all over the winner of the three-horse contest before getting tired as he eyeballed eventual winner Navajo Pass. He'll almost certainly come on for that effort, but losing to a horse rated 149, in receipt of three pounds, doesn't make anyone stand up and take notice.
One final interesting horse to note in the race is Song For Someone. Tom Symonds' horse has won his last three starts, all in Grade 2s, and beat Silver Streak last time out in the International Hurdle. Inexplicably, Song For Someone is available at a best-priced 20/1, almost treble the price of Silver Streak. That Cheltenham form is vastly different to the latter's run at Kempton, and Song For Someone was massively inconvenienced that day too.
Several hurdles were omitted from the race due to low sun, and one of Song For Someone's main assets is his jumping, something which has let Silver Streak down in the past. To hold on and win while giving the future Grade 1-winner two pounds is a solid effort, and he's been completely overlooked.
There had been some talk that he might skip Cheltenham to go to Aintree in April instead, but I'm not sure why. He's shown he's tactically versatile this season already, being held up last of three in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot, before being much closer to the pace at Prestbury Park on his next run. Those types of horse are so valuable in these big races, it allows the jockey to relax more and not worry about having to commit to one specific tactic. We could see him against Goshen on Saturday, as he also is entered in the Contenders' Hurdle.
Assuming he runs here, he is currently massively overpriced, and some of the rivals above him in the market have no right to be at all. If he was from a more prominent stable, he probably would be. But it would be brilliant for the yard to land this race.
However, I do still feel that Epatante is the one to beat in this race, and thanks to her defeat last time out, you're now getting a brilliant price on her at 9/4. She was by far the best of these last year, and she's such a straight forward ride too. If Nicky Henderson has got her back sound, I don't really see anything being able to live with her frightening pace at the end of a race.
From an each-way perspective, as it stands I like Abacadabras and Song For Someone at double-figure prices. If both were to run well or even win in their respective races this weekend, if they stand their ground, then those could be halved and then some. I think there's a lot more depth to this race than there was last season, and it should make for a fascinating contest.
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