Cheltenham Festival 2021 Ante-Post Tips - Gold Cup

It seems like a lifetime has passed since the 2020 Cheltenham Festival took place, but we are merely eight weeks away from the centrepiece of the National Hunt season.

As things stand, it seems almost impossible that any spectators will be allowed to attend – at most, a handful of members may be there to witness the four-day event.

As we count down to the meeting, Matchday FM pundit Harry Reynolds casts his ante-post eye over the races, starting with the main event of the whole week – the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Having become the first back-to-back winner of the race since Best Mate almost two decades ago, it’s quite surprising that there isn’t more public adoration for Willie Mullins’ Al Boum Photo. The way he’s campaigned probably doesn’t help his cause – traditionally appearing only once at Tramore prior to the blue riband of jump racing – but you can hardly ask for more of the horse when he is seen.

Al Boum Photo has only been beaten once in open company in six starts, and that was by stablemate Kemboy in the Punchestown Gold Cup almost two years ago. However, that stat shows the problem for the dual-Gold Cup champion, as we simply don’t see him enough to gain an affection for him.

That isn’t to criticise Mullins’ handling of the horse at all. It took him long enough to win the race, so you can hardly blame him for sticking to the tried and tested routine. And as he looks to emulate Best Mate once more this season, by landing the event for the third consecutive year, he has far fewer questions to answer than any of his rivals.

Paul Townend celebrates winning the first of his two Gold Cups aboard Al Boum Photo in 2019.

Any lingering doubts about the Irish participation at Cheltenham were vanquished when Mullins sent his mare Grangee over for a Listed bumper at Market Rasen a week ago, so barring injury there is no doubt Al Boum Photo will line up here. He won the 2019 running off a strong gallop, and was able to come out on top last season in a horribly messy race with no pace at all, thanks to an excellent move from jockey Paul Townend to take him to the front on the second and final circuit. He was able to resist Santini’s late charge up the hill that day, and he doesn’t have any real chinks in his armour.

That being said, I would be very surprised if he was much shorter on the day than the 4/1 he is currently best-priced at to win the race, and therefore doesn’t make much of an ante-post proposition.

Ireland and Henry De Bromhead head up the challengers to Al Boum Photo’s crown, with his Minella Indo and Savills Chase winner A Plus Tard next in the betting. Minella Indo fell in that race, and it turned into an incredible spectacle with Melon and Kemboy being mowed down late by A Plus Tard, suggesting that the extra distance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup could be welcome.

With the Dublin Racing festival at Leopardstown merely a fortnight away, I would be shocked if we didn’t see at least Minella Indo in the Irish Gold Cup, who will be eager to prove his credentials. There’s every possibility that A Plus Tard will appear too, and both have been entered. If either of them win then their price will take a bit of a crunch, but I’m happy to look elsewhere on both counts. Minella Indo got outstayed by Champ in what was the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last season, and I’m not totally convinced A Plus Tard could win a Gold Cup. He didn't really seem to get up the hill all that well behind Min in the Ryanair last season.

Champ is another contender in this race, although we still haven’t yet seen him in open company. He had a wind operation in the summer, and was originally pencilled in for the Savills Chase but opted against that race, and it’s likely we’ll see Nicky Henderson’s charge in the Denman Chase at Newbury next month.

What we certainly know about Champ is that he stays extraordinarily well, but his jumping would have to improve in a Gold Cup. He fell on the New Course at Cheltenham in the Dipper in January 2020 with the race at his mercy, and it wasn't much better when winning what was the RSA Novices' Chase. He summoned an almighty effort that day, coming from an awfully long way back to get up ahead of Minella Indo and Allaho.

However, a lot of things would have to go right for the JP McManus-owned horse between now and the meeting, and then again during the race, for him to win the Gold Cup. I’d be waiting to see him jump a fence again before backing him, certainly at a similar price (12/1) to other horses who’ve won this season, but there is absolutely no doubt he’s got the ability and the engine. His entry in the Stayers' Hurdle proves that he has had far from the ideal preparation for this race.

Another Henderson horse, Santini, is the one who interests me most. This animal is like marmite to a lot of the racing community; he’s a monster of a horse, but can race lazily a lot and comes off the bridle easily. We’ve already seen that twice this season, both in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree and then again in the King George. He ran incredibly well to finish second in the Gold Cup last year, and he was inconvenienced much more than the eventual winner by the slow pace. Santini would have no issue whatsoever getting the trip in the Grand National, and he needs a strong gallop to be seen at his best.

Still lightly-raced for his age, I’m sure there’s still more improvement to come from Santini. He’s due to run in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day in a week’s time, and if he can follow up his victory in the race last year, I think people will begin to believe some of the hype a bit more. With 10/1 available currently, he’s brilliant each-way value in my book, having never finished out of the top three in five starts at the track.

Santini (silver colours) was narrowly denied by Al Boum Photo in last season's Gold Cup.

In terms of the rest of the runners, Frodon is a general 14/1 shot having won the King George, but I don’t think he’d place in a Gold Cup if he started now. It was a brilliant ride from Bryony Frost at Kempton, slowing the pace right down and using her horse’s excellent jumping to keep him at the front. But the other riders should’ve been aware of his front-running prowess and cottoned onto it sooner. Twice in 2020 Frodon spat his dummy out when he was taken on for the lead – first by Min in the Ryanair, and secondly by Native River in the Many Clouds Chase, finishing well out of the frame on both occasions. It's clear that he struggles significantly when he doesn't get his own way.

It seems as though Native River will be re-opposing in this race, and he was heavily unsuited by the fact that the three fences in the home straight were omitted that day. Jumping exuberantly has always been the 2018 Gold Cup winner’s main asset, but he showed the fire was still burning that day. If he lines up here, and he doesn’t miss the start like he did in 2019, I don’t think much will be keen to take him on except Frodon, who obviously wouldn’t be able to live with him. The fast pace that Colin Tizzard’s horse would set may ultimately bring the likes of Al Boum Photo, A Plus Tard, Santini and Champ into the race, but there are worse each-way bets than his 40/1 to roll back the years.

Native River won an epic renewal of the race three seasons ago, holding off Might Bite.

Delta Work is also over-priced at around 25/1 in my book. He unseated in the Savills Chase, but it’s a well-known belief that he needs Jack Kennedy to ride him to get the best out of him. This horse has his quirks, and Kennedy was missing on that occasion due to injury, leaving Sean Flanagan in the saddle. Gordon Elliott’s charge is a multiple Grade 1 winner over fences, taking the Savills and the Irish Gold Cup last season, and he won at the Festival in 2018, before placing in what was the RSA behind Topofthegame and Santini in 2019. Assuming that Jack Kennedy will take the reins in March, with a clear round he is another horse who would enjoy a strong gallop and could be bang there at the finish.

Having failed to fire in two runs this season, you would have to question whether Allaho has much of a chance in this race. The same can be said for Presenting Percy, who finally got his head back in front two starts ago after joining Gordon Elliott from Pat Kelly’s yard. He has consistently showed everyone he is not a top-class three mile chaser; but because he was so excellent at the Festival in 2018, he still seems to be fancied whenever he runs. He has placed only once in six starts in open company over at least three miles, and I don’t expect that record to be improved. It’s quite incredible to think he went off favourite for the Gold Cup in 2019.

Lostintranslation, last year’s third in the race, bled after running terribly in the King George, and was also awful in the Betfair Chase. Colin Tizzard has an awful lot to get this horse back running well, let alone to win a Gold Cup. I would be less sceptical of Kemboy’s chances, as he was so close to landing another Grade 1 before being nabbed by A Plus Tard. He won the Aintree Bowl almost on the bridle two years ago, before inflicting defeat on Al Boum Photo in the Punchestown Gold Cup, which turned out to be Ruby Walsh’s last ever ride. He can be ridden prominently and would be happy to sit just in behind Native River, although his record at Cheltenham wouldn’t fill you with confidence – 5-4-UR-7. His run behind A Plus Tard did show that some of the fire still remains at least, after a very indifferent campaign in 2019/20.

Kemboy (left) has shown he can compete at the top table, beating Al Boum Photo in the 2019 Punchestown Gold Cup.

I’m hopeful that Native River will run and make it a proper test – that’s what I’ve always thought the Gold Cup should be. If he does, it has plenty of contenders to make it a fascinating race, with the potential for some history. In terms of the most likely winner of the race, that has to be Al Boum Photo without question.

As I mentioned previously, the two-time champion isn’t much of a betting proposition at this stage. I think the most sensible bet now is Santini; we know he loves the track, we know he stays, and with a fast pace his chances are much greater than last year. Historically, horses struggle to come back and win the Gold Cup for the first time after failing previously, with Native River the first horse to do so in 2018, and he may find Al Boum Photo too good again. However, I would be shocked if he was out of the places. At 10/1, you’re looking at treble your money for him to just finish in the first three, and that is excellent value.