Love Withdrawal Leaves Enable in the Clear for Arc History

If you’d been following the betting markets for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Love’s absence from the final declarations was no surprise.

The winner of both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks, she has been the ante-post favourite for this race for some time, but was usurped by dual-winner Enable following a torrential downpour earlier in the week and forecasts for more to come.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has been clear in the past that soft ground would not be to her liking, which is backed up by the form book, as she was beaten three times as a juvenile on ground with juice in it.

Love stormed clear to win the Oaks by nine lengths in July, but won't make adding a fifth Group 1 this weekend.

On Wednesday night Love drifted out to a massive 4/1, giving all the signs that she would not be taking her chance in the French capital on Sunday.

Enable is now the clear favourite to land a historic third Arc, having fallen just short on similar ground 12 months ago.

On that occasion, jockey Frankie Dettori got swept up in the emotion and went for home too soon on the wondermare, allowing Andre Fabre’s Waldgeist to mow her down in the closing stages under Pierre-Charles Boudot.

Waldgeist stole Enable's crown on tough conditions a year ago.

Still, her record of two wins and a second in the race make her the most successful horse in its history, and had she won that day she wouldn’t have been kept in training this season to be able to improve on that.

Given a plum draw in stall five, it has set up perfectly for Enable and Dettori to make amends for last year.

Her preparation for this year’s running has arguably been her smoothest yet – in 2017 she ran six times prior to the Arc, while injury caused her to miss most of the 2018 season. In 2019, she had a longer than ideal gap between the Yorkshire Oaks and this, which affected her training.

John Gosden has plotted a more natural route with the 11-time Group 1 winner this time around. Like last season, she reappeared in the Eclipse, before going on to the King George at Ascot; this time they favoured the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton which she won in 2018, rather than meeting Love in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Dettori celebrates aboard Enable after winning a second Arc in 2018.

That outing was little more than a racecourse gallop for her against completely inferior rivals, but has left her in peak condition for this, her final assignment.

Although Enable didn’t have to be at her best when landing a third King George in July, beating only Sovereign and Japan with the latter barely going a yard, the clock suggests her ability hasn’t waned.

She recorded a time over five seconds faster this year than in the 2019 edition, and even accounting for quicker ground this season, that is seriously impressive as she herself had another year on her body clock.

The stats will tell you that six-year-olds don’t win the Arc, and while that in itself is correct, no horse of that age with even an ounce of her talent has ever run in it.

In all honesty, the only thing that could stop Enable triumphing would be Dettori getting it wrong again. We’ve seen him in tears post-race when talking about her on several occasions, and his emotion and attachment towards her is remarkable. But that cost them a year ago.

With all his experience, alongside less pressure on Enable this year given her age, and the fact that she isn’t going for a third consecutive win in the race now, it would be very surprising if the Italian made the same mistake again.

When looking at her rivals, they simply aren’t as good as her. Stradivarius has never won over the 1m4f distance, and Sottsass was behind her last year when in receipt of three pounds – this time, Jean-Claude Rouget’s horse must concede that same weight to Enable.

The form Mogul and In Swoop displayed in the Grand Prix de Paris last month would be nowhere near good enough to beat even a below-par Enable. Ground conditions give In Swoop a chance of reversing that form and taking something of a step forward however.

Mogul staked his claims for the Arc with a striking success over course and distance in September.

Raabihah has never raced on ground worse than good-to-soft, and was beaten convincingly into second in the Prix Vermaille on her most recent appearance.

Japan has failed to win in over a year and has seen the back of Enable on three occasions, while Persian King looks a blatant non-stayer. The rest of the field would have effectively no chance.

We may not see a horse run in four Arcs for some time, and credit must go for Prince Khalid Abdullah for keeping Enable in training for a fifth campaign. All too often on the flat, horses come and go before they have a chance to develop an affinity with the racing public and beyond.

No horse will ever have a better chance on ratings, ground, form and the draw than the imperious Enable of completing this historic treble.

If she does, she will cement her legacy as one of the best horses to ever grace the track.